Stephen J. Choi (New York University - School of Law), G. Mitu Gulati (Duke University - School of Law), and Eric A. Posner (University of Chicago Law School; University of Chicago Press ) have posted Professionals or Politicians: The Uncertain Empirical Case for an Elected Rather than Appointed Judiciary on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Although federal judges are appointed with life tenure, most state judges are elected for short terms. Conventional wisdom holds that appointed judges are superior to elected judges because appointed judges are less vulnerable to political pressure. However, there is little empirical evidence for this view. Using a dataset of state high court opinions, we construct objective measures for three aspects of judicial performance: effort, skill and independence. The measures permit a test of the relationship between performance and the four primary methods of state high court judge selection: partisan election, non-partisan election, merit plan, and appointment. The empirical results do not show appointed judges performing at a higher level than their elected counterparts. Appointed judges write higher quality opinions than elected judges do, but elected judges write many more opinions, and the evidence suggests that the large quantity difference makes up for the small quality difference. In addition, elected judges do not appear less independent than appointed judges. The results suggest that elected judges are more focused on providing service to the voters (that is, they behave like politicians), whereas appointed judges are more focused on their long-term legacy as creators of precedent (that is, they behave like professionals).
And a bit more from the paper:
The literature [on judicial behavior], taken as a whole, provides evidence that selection and retention institutions influence judicial outcomes—by influencing who becomes a judge, or how judges decide cases, or both. The literature also confirms that judges are influenced by political factors. The literature largely skirts our topic—whether elected judges are, overall, better or worse than appointed judges—but offers tantalizing hints. The Tabarrok & Helland studies imply that elected judges are better agents of their constituents than are appointed judges; the social problem they identify is due to the federal structure of the country and the overlapping jurisdictions of states. Hanssen’s (1999) finding that electoral pressures force state judges to be more consistent implies that elected judges are better—more consistent opinions, all else equal, are better than inconsistent opinions. Berkowitz & Clay (2006) do use a measure of overall judicial quality based on the views of senior attorneys at wealthy companies, but, as they acknowledge (pp. 412–13), the views of these senior attorneys are hardly unbiased. Landes & Posner’s (1980) study is closest to ours, but they do not look at productivity and independence, and their study has several methodological limitations.6 Our results are quite different from theirs.
Following the literature, we envision the relationship between the public and the judiciary as an agency relationship. The optimal selection mechanism minimizes agency costs. Judges expend unobservable effort to decide cases. Agency costs can take two forms: laziness (resulting in bad opinions or few opinions) and ideological selfindulgence (biased opinions). The optimal selection mechanism screens out judges with a strong preference for laziness or ideological self-indulgence and/or punishes judges who are observably lazy or ideologically self-indulgent.
Just a bit more:
Our independence measure focuses on the tendency of judges to write opinions that disagree with co-partisans when the pool of judges provides opportunities to do so.9 We define an “opposing opinion” as either a majority opinion when a dissent exists, or a dissent when a majority exists. We assume that a judge exhibits independence when she writes an opposing opinion against a co-partisan.
And:
The bottom line is that the data is consistent with the findings in the empirical literature that judicial opinions reflect partisan or ideological bias. However, the data does not support the received wisdom that appointed judges are more independent than electoral judges.
Supercool paper! This does seem to move the ball forward.