John Lott (American Enterprise Institute) has posted More Guns, Fewer Criminals on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Prior
research analyzing county level data for the entire United States from
1977 to 2000, found annual reductions in murder rates between 1.5 and
2.3 percent for each additional year that a right-to-carry law is in
effect. This study investigates a neglected causal connection between
aggregate gun possession levels and crime rates--mortality rates among
populations subgroups most likely to engage in criminal activity.
Utilizing data collected in the Department of Justice's National Crime
Assessment Project and mortality data gathered in 15 randomly selected
SMSAs, we establish a statistically significant relationship between
gun possession levels and mortality among the population subgroup most
likely to commit crimes--nonwhite males with marks of gang affiliation
between the ages of 17 and 24. Extrapolating these findings on a
national basis leads to the conclusion that each additional gun
introduced in high-crime subregions produces an additional 0.27
mortalities in the relevant population subgroup. Utilizing crime
propensity data reported by the NCAP, we project that this
incapacitation effect will produce 3.2 fewer reported property-related
crimes, 1.2 fewer violent crimes (excluding homicides), and 0.31 fewer
homicides per additional gun. These findings suggest that zoning
ordinances designed to reduce gun sales in high-crime urban areas are
counterproductive.
