On Slate, Looking ahead to Justice Antonin Scalia's retirement by Richard L. Hasen. A taste:
- President Obama's political task, three years from now, will be to convince the country that he, not a Republican president, should make that potential appointment. The point isn't to show that he would move the Court leftward if re-elected in 2012—he'd probably be better off sending more moderate signals, which is another reason not to expect him to choose a strong liberal to fill Stevens' seat. Obama should instead stress that if a Republican wins in 2012, Scalia and Kennedy will probably retire. That would give the new Republican president the chance to entrench the five-justice Republican majority for decades—and to cement it, by replacing Kennedy with a wholly reliable right-wing vote. That's the Supreme Court script for the Democrats in 2012.
