Kevin M. Clermont (Cornell Law School) has posted Conjunction of Evidence and Multivalent Logic on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Classical logic and its attendant probability theory produce in law the troublesome conjunction paradox. They tell us the conjoined likelihood of independent factual elements equals the product of each element’s likelihood. Meanwhile, the law requires each element of a cause of action to meet the standard of proof, while it declines to apply the standard of proof to the elements’ conjunction. Seemingly, if the cause entails more than one element, no assurance exists that the conjunction of likelihoods will meet the standard of proof.
Multivalent logic, however, explodes this conjunction paradox. It does so by showing, for elements that will never be revealed as certainly false or true, that the elements’ conjoined likelihood equals the least likely element’s likelihood. This is exactly equivalent to the law’s approach. Hence, the law performs accurately.
Highly recommended.
