Liam Sigaud (George Mason University - Mercatus Center), Elijah Neilson (Southern Utah University), Vitor Melo (Clemson University; Mercatus Center; Initiative on Enabling Choice and Competition at the University of Chicago), & Sebastian Anastasi (Clemson University - John E. Walker Department of Economics) have posted Drug Decriminalization, Public Health, and Crime: Evidence from Oregon on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
The war on drugs is widely criticized for failing to achieve its objectives and for its negative collateral effects. We investigate how a stark departure from this approach affects crime. We examine Oregon's Measure 110, a law that eliminated criminal penalties for personal possession of all drugs and increased funding for public health initiatives. Using a synthetic difference-indifferences strategy, we find that Measure 110 caused a 60% reduction in homicides, thereby preventing 72 deaths per year. It also caused a 23% increase in robberies (330 per year) and a 10% increase in burglaries (1,649 per year). We find no evidence of changes in other crimes. Applying standard social cost estimates, we estimate that Measure 110 decreased the net social cost of crime by about $828 million per year.
